Corn and the Economy, Serious Inflation

The National Corn Growers Association http://www.ncga.com provides a list of 22 categories of products that use corn by-products. An example is corn sweeteners marketed through Cargil http://www.cargill.com/products/food/ps_corn_sweeteners.htm. I am not familiar with all of these products that include brewing adjuncts, corn syrup, dextrose, etc. Of course corn growers see big opportunities in the production of ethanol.

The impact of the floods along the Mississippi River basin this year will soon impact all of our lives. The USDA reported today that corn harvests this year will be 87.3 million acres, down from last year's 93.6 million acres. Corn futures for July contracts have jumped 25% from $6.00 per bushel to more than $7.50 per bushel. My source is Business Week. http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D91KDEN80.htm.

So what is more important? Is it an on going war in Iraq with a victory that the Republicans cannot define or is it the American economy?

The Death of Newspapers

Jon Fine’s weekly column in Business Week entitled Media Centric has been writing about the slow death of daily newspapers for the past two years. Here in Los Angeles we have seen the Los Angeles Times shrinking away along with its many smaller localized newspapers. The Orange County Register and the Daily News of Los Angeles have been the Times primary competitors. Sadly they too have been shrinking before our eyes.

The Daily News has had a 4 page opinion and editorial section every Sunday. It has featured some of America’s best columnists. Those writers have included Thomas Friedman, Richard Cohen, David Brooks, Bill O’Reilly, Maureen Dowd, and Thomas Sowell. Today they announced the shrinking of that section to two pages buried in the front section. http://www.dailynews.com/search/ci_9661925?IADID=Search-www.dailynews.com-www.dailynews. . Clearly we will see less of their writing in print in the future. Blame it on the internet. The Daily News only printed about one third of all the letters I submitted to their opinion page but it was always fun to know that my letters might appear. That is why I was motivated to start two BLOGS. They are http://coastcontact.wordpress.com/ and http://coastcontact.blogspot.com/ /. The same items do not appear in both BLOGS. This entry is the exception.

Tell me again, this is progress, right?

“My Winnipeg”

“My Winnipeg” is a new movie reviewed today in the Los Angeles Times. It was made by a film maker that has lived his life there and according to the reviewer is perfectly happy to spend the rest of his life there. Of course I would not have read the review at all except that it is the birthplace of my parents and the home or birthplace of many of my relatives. I have not been there since the age of 9.

The Times critic gave the film a thumbs up. It can be seen a Landmark’s Nuart, 11272 Santa Monica Blvd., West Los Angeles. A search on the web tells me it is playing in other cities too but apparently not yet playing in Winnipeg.

http://www.mywinnipeg.com/ really is all about that city.

The Los Angeles review http://www.calendarlive.com/movies/reviews/la-et-winnipeg20-2008jun20,0,3238973.story

The Energy Crises

I just finished reading a full page article by Renee Schoof and Kevin G. Hall entitled “Understanding ethanol” printed in my local newspaper. It was distributed by McClatchy-Tribune but is not on line. The article answered such questions as What are biofuels? and What is ethanol?. Unfortunately the question Does using ethanol help the environment?, How long before ethanol becomes widely available? and others are vaguely answered leaving the reader wondering if these solutions will work.

I tried researching the issue on the internet and was disappointed in the results. I still do not know the cost to produce this gasoline alternative. The costs are clearly more than just the cost building the factories for processing and the costs of transportation. The impact on the food supply could negate any benefits. The web sites provided in the newspaper article were all posted by companies and organizations that are promoting ethanol including one that posted an article of concern about “Big Food’s campaign against ethanol.” www.ethanolrfa.org , www.iogen.ca and www.ncga.com/ethanol/main/index.asp .

zfacts.com has an array of facts that I cannot verify including this item "Ethanol Today," (8/'05) states "Five years ago, a US General Accounting Office report showed that ethanol had received $11.6 billion in tax incentives since 1968, while the oil industry had received over $150 billion in tax benefit over the same period.

Recent statements from presidential candidates and other politicians provide little or no leadership। There is a lack of information on the internet. This nation is in real trouble and no one knows the answers. Even worse, no one is prepared for the changes we face.

I have established a link to gas prices in California through gasbuddy.com to tell us how serious this problem is but you all knew that.

Tim Russert

Tim died from a heart attack yesterdy. He was 58 years old. He was the greatest interviewer of all time. I recorded and watched every one of his shows (Meet The Press on NBC and Tim Russert on MSNBC). Even as I post this item on my BLOG the accolades are non-stop as they should be. He made me feel that there was one interviewer who really asks the right questions. The Associated Press reported that many feared the grilling he would give his guests but they knew he was the conduit to the truth. http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080613/D919FDKO0.html

All of America will miss him.

TIM RUSSERT 1950-2008

Los Angeles Mayor Villaraigosa and the Jews

Yes, there are a lot of Jewish people in Los Angeles. Many are political activists. In fact Jews hold many political offices in California. Both of our U.S. senators are Jewish. We have many Jewish house members too. So Mayor Villaragosa wants to appeal to those voters in his upcoming re-election. Thus visiting Israel might benefit him and the three council members (districts with high Jewish populations) who are accompanying . However, Jews are not easily persuaded.

I am Jewish but I am more concerned with the multiple issues surrounding our city than the mayor’s trip with an entourage of 20 people to Israel। Two articles in local papers worth reading about this trip are the editorial in the Los Angeles Daily News

http://www.dailynews.com/ci_9420932 and an article in the Los Angeles Times http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-israel11-2008jun11,0,4598943.story.

List of elected Jews from California to Washington, D.C.
=U.S. Senators: Barbara Boxer and Diane Feinstein

=U.S. House Representatives: Howard Berman, Susan Davis, Bob Filner, Jane Harman, Adam Schiff , Brad Sherman and Henry Waxman

An Investment Experience

I have been listening to Bob Brinker on KABC radio for years. His program is called Moneytalk. He says he started his weekend investment show about 20 years ago. It is a listener call in show where he answers questions about investing in stocks, bonds, and other kinds of investments from real estate to whole life insurance policies.

I became so impressed with his advice that I started subscribing to his newsletter two years ago. I tracked his recommendations (that are not discussed on the radio but are provided in his newsletter) compared to my own investment ideas. However I never actually acted on most of his recommendations until this past July 2007. I decided to do that because I was not happy with my progress in investing. My decision was a serious error.

In his July 2007 newsletter he wrote “In summary, The Marketimer stock market model remains in positive territory as the second half of 2007 commences. We expect the S&P 500 Index to achieve new record highs, and we believe a strong case can be made for a move into S&P 500 Index 1600’s range as we move foreward… into 2008.” Mr. Brinker followed up on that statement on August 17, 2008 with this alert that he emails to his subscribers, “…the current S&P 500 Index level, is regarded as an additional buying opportunity for subscribers looking to add to stock market holdings.

Marketimer © expects the S&P 500 Index to register new historic record highs as we move forward into next year.”

After dropping to 1270 now Mr. Brinker is forecasting S&P 500 Index in the 1400’s range in the coming year. I have dropped my subscription.

To add to my dismay the GABELLI ASSET FUND (GABAX), one of his recommendations has tracked the fall of the S&P 500 Index and in fact has performed even worse. Mr. Gabelli’s income as the manager last year was over $9 million (as reported in the shareholder’s report).

Mr. Brinker offers no apologies!

Mr. Brinker did teach me something. Listen to everyone but trust no one. Do lots of homework before you make any investments.