That the economy was going south should not have come as a surprise. Talk of the impact of the sub-prime mortgage market has been in play for at least a year. I too did not believe that this mortgage mess would have such a staggering effect on the entire economy. However, I am not an economist. Ben Bernanke is and his Federal Reserve Board should have been able to evaluate the impact. Where were the financial gurus? As recently as July 5, 2007 Bob Brinker, the leading writer of financial newsletters, was writing that he foresaw a bright future for the stock market.
Now that the nation is in this mess I expected a quick acting congress would inject money into the economy within one or two months. Instead the reports are indicating that tax rebate checks to stimulate the economy will be arriving sometime in May. That is five month from now. That is too far in the future.
The Democrats and Republicans run the government and both are failing. The evidence is obvious to me. It’s Katrina, it’s reacting to a recession, it’s protecting our nation from a terrorist invasion, and most of all it’s about making our government effective.
If there was ever a time when we needed an independent that could rise above the fray, now is the time. I don’t know if that person is Michael Bloomberg or another independent. In my view we definitely need new leadership.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Thursday, January 10, 2008
CPI, Can We Believe This?
After posting this commentary on Thursday, January 10, the Associated Press publishes this article on January 16. The newly reported inflation rate is still not accurate but the trend is obvious. http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080116/D8U737180.html
Forget Core Inflation. That was an idea created by Alan Greenspan. He was wrong. The core inflation measurement ignored all the things we need to live like food and energy.
“The Consumer Price Indexes(CPI) program produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services”। That is quoted from the U.S. Department of Labor that manages this program.
Forget Core Inflation. That was an idea created by Alan Greenspan. He was wrong. The core inflation measurement ignored all the things we need to live like food and energy.
“The Consumer Price Indexes(CPI) program produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services”। That is quoted from the U.S. Department of Labor that manages this program.
We really need a measurement that is reliable. I just can’t believe that the current CPI is accurate. There have been articles posted on the internet that do challenge the CPI accuracy. My own views and experiences are the bases for this opinion.
Here is four items that support my opinion.
- Thanksgiving dinners for a family of 10 were reported in the news to cost 11% more in 2007 than 2006.
-Gasoline nationwide has increased in price from $2.14 to $3.10 per gallon during the past 12 months. That is a 44.8% increase.
- Cavaretta’s is a local Italian deli that makes fabulous sandwiches. The 2007 price for their small subway style chicken sandwich was $4.50. This year the price is $5.25. A dismaying 16.7% increase.
- The price for milk at my neighborhood Trader Joe’s (actually over 1½ miles away) increased by 33%.। We buy milk there because it’s about 60% of the prices charged at the local supermarket (about ½ mile from my home).
Will the government become more accurate if there were a change in political parties? No. We all know that the information has been managed because the politicians don’t want to admit the truth.
Monday, December 24, 2007
Los Angeles issues for 2008
With the beginning of a new year Los Angeles government needs to identify and address the issues for 2008। Crime is always the number one issue but there are many other problems to tackle.
Here are my issues:
1. The number of police is too low compared to Chicago and NYC. We need to change the ratio.
2. LAUSD needs to be broken apart.
3. Illegal immigrants are over running our city. Our society is being affected both socially and financially by their presence. If Congress won’t pass legislation to make them legal we need to start returning them to their native countries.
4. There is a lack of affordable housing.
5. The city must become business friendly. There is a lack of decent paying jobs. There are plenty of jobs available at $10 per hour or less. No one can live here on that pay except students still living with their parents.
6. The traffic makes getting to work a nightmare for many people. We need better roads and an improved public transportation system. The “subway to the sea” is a good start.
7. We need to spend more money on our infrastructure. Paving streets and sidewalks, cleaning streets, cutting trees, replacing dead trees, improving and repairing parks and other public facilities.
8. Neighborhood councils need to be given direct control over the monies spent in their communities. An advisory roll is insufficient. Leadership of the councils should be elected on regular ballots not by a select few.
9. Oversight committees should be given the ability to stop payment when bond monies are misappropriated.
10. Planning commission meetings must be required to meet in the community that is affected by their decisions.
Here are my issues:
1. The number of police is too low compared to Chicago and NYC. We need to change the ratio.
2. LAUSD needs to be broken apart.
3. Illegal immigrants are over running our city. Our society is being affected both socially and financially by their presence. If Congress won’t pass legislation to make them legal we need to start returning them to their native countries.
4. There is a lack of affordable housing.
5. The city must become business friendly. There is a lack of decent paying jobs. There are plenty of jobs available at $10 per hour or less. No one can live here on that pay except students still living with their parents.
6. The traffic makes getting to work a nightmare for many people. We need better roads and an improved public transportation system. The “subway to the sea” is a good start.
7. We need to spend more money on our infrastructure. Paving streets and sidewalks, cleaning streets, cutting trees, replacing dead trees, improving and repairing parks and other public facilities.
8. Neighborhood councils need to be given direct control over the monies spent in their communities. An advisory roll is insufficient. Leadership of the councils should be elected on regular ballots not by a select few.
9. Oversight committees should be given the ability to stop payment when bond monies are misappropriated.
10. Planning commission meetings must be required to meet in the community that is affected by their decisions.
Friday, December 7, 2007
Oh, This Hurts!
How many people are following the debates (really forums) put on by each political party? Many commentators have said the numbers are small. I have not found any data on the internet to support or contradict those statements.
Although most of the candidates tend to mimic each others opinion in each political party there are some differences. Watching the news and listening to the candidates has slowly helped to define my positions. I am disappointed that none of the candidates have a vision of the future.
Here are my views on some of the leading candidates.
-Mitt Romney has changed most of his positions from the time he was governor of Massachusetts to when he became a candidate for president. His views as governor were relatively liberal and mostly aligned with the Democrats in that state. Now as a past governor and a man trying to win support in his conservative party he has espoused views that support very conservative positions. Romney is a flip flopper. He bows to opinion and has not taken any stand on any issue even if it is unpopular. His speech on his Mormon religion was excellent but does not changes his flip फ्लोप्पिंग ways on issues that really matter. He has not said anything that makes him a standout in the crowd.
-Mike Huckabee has declared himself the Christian candidate. He does not believe in evolution. He has implied that there is something wrong with Mitt Romney’s Mormon religion. There is no religious qualification for this job. As to Huckabee’s position on issues he seems to have mimicked Mitt Romney when he was governor of Arkansas. To Huckabee’s credit he does defend his action when he was governor. Defining himself as the Christian candidate eliminates him as someone I would support.
-Hillary Clinton has defined herself as the candidate with the experience that will enable her to walk into the White House and capably go to work because she was there before. She voted for the war in Iraq and does not regret it. Recently Mrs. Clinton voted to declare a military group sponsored by the state of Iran a terrorist organization. In light of the NIE report that Iran stopped developing nuclear weapons in 2003 it appears her decision was wrong. Her contention that experience trumps new ideas is hard to swallow. Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney came to the current administration with significant experience and their assessment of Iraq was entirely wrong. Still she is smart, wise, and seems most likely to be the candidate most likely to succeed as president.
-Barak Obama calls himself the man with hope (his book “The Audacity of Hope”) and the man with new ideas. He points out that he would not have voted for the war in Iraq. He would directly personally negotiate with the leaders of other countries to avoid war. He does have some issues that he has not resolved or cannot resolve. He is young and in his first term as a Senator. His experience in government is small. Mr. Obama was not present to cast his ballot on the resolution to declare a military group sponsored by the state of Iran a terrorist organization (the one that Hilary Clinton voted yes). He then proceeded to criticize Mrs. Clinton’s decision to vote yes. In the Philadelphia debate in October Mr. Obama criticized Mrs. Clinton’s equivocation on driver’s licenses for illegal aliens but he too gave a long answer to the yes or no question (Should illegal aliens be issued driver’s licenses?
-John Edwards has a clear vision of where he stands on most issues. Like Barak Obama he has limited experience in government. He did vote for the Iraq war but has regretted that decision. His positions have been strongly in support of unions and working class people. He is wealthy and that has been held against him because he earned the money as a lawyer. I have not found any significant contradictions in his positions although he has become more strident with the passing of time.
Although most of the candidates tend to mimic each others opinion in each political party there are some differences. Watching the news and listening to the candidates has slowly helped to define my positions. I am disappointed that none of the candidates have a vision of the future.
Here are my views on some of the leading candidates.
-Mitt Romney has changed most of his positions from the time he was governor of Massachusetts to when he became a candidate for president. His views as governor were relatively liberal and mostly aligned with the Democrats in that state. Now as a past governor and a man trying to win support in his conservative party he has espoused views that support very conservative positions. Romney is a flip flopper. He bows to opinion and has not taken any stand on any issue even if it is unpopular. His speech on his Mormon religion was excellent but does not changes his flip फ्लोप्पिंग ways on issues that really matter. He has not said anything that makes him a standout in the crowd.
-Mike Huckabee has declared himself the Christian candidate. He does not believe in evolution. He has implied that there is something wrong with Mitt Romney’s Mormon religion. There is no religious qualification for this job. As to Huckabee’s position on issues he seems to have mimicked Mitt Romney when he was governor of Arkansas. To Huckabee’s credit he does defend his action when he was governor. Defining himself as the Christian candidate eliminates him as someone I would support.
-Hillary Clinton has defined herself as the candidate with the experience that will enable her to walk into the White House and capably go to work because she was there before. She voted for the war in Iraq and does not regret it. Recently Mrs. Clinton voted to declare a military group sponsored by the state of Iran a terrorist organization. In light of the NIE report that Iran stopped developing nuclear weapons in 2003 it appears her decision was wrong. Her contention that experience trumps new ideas is hard to swallow. Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney came to the current administration with significant experience and their assessment of Iraq was entirely wrong. Still she is smart, wise, and seems most likely to be the candidate most likely to succeed as president.
-Barak Obama calls himself the man with hope (his book “The Audacity of Hope”) and the man with new ideas. He points out that he would not have voted for the war in Iraq. He would directly personally negotiate with the leaders of other countries to avoid war. He does have some issues that he has not resolved or cannot resolve. He is young and in his first term as a Senator. His experience in government is small. Mr. Obama was not present to cast his ballot on the resolution to declare a military group sponsored by the state of Iran a terrorist organization (the one that Hilary Clinton voted yes). He then proceeded to criticize Mrs. Clinton’s decision to vote yes. In the Philadelphia debate in October Mr. Obama criticized Mrs. Clinton’s equivocation on driver’s licenses for illegal aliens but he too gave a long answer to the yes or no question (Should illegal aliens be issued driver’s licenses?
-John Edwards has a clear vision of where he stands on most issues. Like Barak Obama he has limited experience in government. He did vote for the Iraq war but has regretted that decision. His positions have been strongly in support of unions and working class people. He is wealthy and that has been held against him because he earned the money as a lawyer. I have not found any significant contradictions in his positions although he has become more strident with the passing of time.
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Is Everything Really Local?
I live in the Northwest part of the San Fernando Valley in a community called Canoga Park. Most of the Valley is within the city limits of Los Angeles. It’s a one hour drive to downtown Los Angeles. That is the location of city hall and where the city council meets. This is not a convenient location for most residence in the San Fernando Valley.
As a result, city decisions about this community are made with little input from Canoga Park residents (most are at work during city council meetings). To give each community in the city a sense of participation the city charter requires the government to create local neighborhood councils. However the local councils have no authority to affect any services provided to the communities. The councils only have advisory authority. I posted a blog entry about neighborhood councils on August 27, 2007.
The consequence of this government arrangement is local participation in neighborhood councils is minimal. After all, who wants to be a part of a group that cannot accomplish anything? Despite this predicament, a home owner three blocks from me is trying to organize a local group that might be able to influence the downtown bureaucracy with respect to maintenance of the neighborhood (street paving, tree trimming, street cleaning, etc.).
I have visited many of my neighbors to encourage them to participate in this endeavor. Some have said they are interested. This will be an ongoing effort. I will post success or failures here.
As a result, city decisions about this community are made with little input from Canoga Park residents (most are at work during city council meetings). To give each community in the city a sense of participation the city charter requires the government to create local neighborhood councils. However the local councils have no authority to affect any services provided to the communities. The councils only have advisory authority. I posted a blog entry about neighborhood councils on August 27, 2007.
The consequence of this government arrangement is local participation in neighborhood councils is minimal. After all, who wants to be a part of a group that cannot accomplish anything? Despite this predicament, a home owner three blocks from me is trying to organize a local group that might be able to influence the downtown bureaucracy with respect to maintenance of the neighborhood (street paving, tree trimming, street cleaning, etc.).
I have visited many of my neighbors to encourage them to participate in this endeavor. Some have said they are interested. This will be an ongoing effort. I will post success or failures here.
Friday, November 23, 2007
Balancing Los Angeles City Budget
There are 39 separate categories (departments or commissions) listed in the Los Angeles city budget. However 28 of those categories have budgets in the current fiscal year that are higher than last year’s budget. Those budgets are anywhere from 8% higher to 100% higher. The city clerk department has a budget that is twice last year’s budget.
I obtained this information from the mayor’s city budget website, http://www.lacity.org/mayor/budget/. I downloaded the information into an Excel spreadsheet and proceeded to do a little analysis. I am not an accountant but the information was just easy to acquire, as it should be, and did a little reading and sorting of data.
Here is another bit of surprising information. This year’s actual spending is exceeding the budget in 14 of the 39 departments.
I questioned why many of the departments exist. The housing department caught my eye. The department costs over $38 million dollars in salaries and another $6 million in operating expenses this year. ”The Los Angeles Housing Department has four program areas, housing, rent, code enforcement and compliance” The department also manages the Displaced Tenant Relocation fund that is estimated to be $500,000 this year. The total budget for this department in 2005-06 year was $36 million. That is a 22% increase in just one year ($38 million dollars plus $6 million).
The city’s elected officials know that there is a budget issue but have done little to stem the unbudgeted spending. Many are taking their pay raises with claims that they will donate the money to charity but the money for those raises is not really available. Worse are recently negotiated pay raises for all city employees. The police department’s new headquarters has seen its cost double from approximately $200 million dollars to $400 million. Many millions of dollars is being allocated for a new children’s museum.
Now the mayor has declared an emergency that enables the city to ask city voters for a new phone tax that only requires a majority yes vote to pass। If it wasn’t an emergency passing the tax would require a vote of at least 66.6%.
The lack of responsibility among city council members and the mayor is the emergency.
I obtained this information from the mayor’s city budget website, http://www.lacity.org/mayor/budget/. I downloaded the information into an Excel spreadsheet and proceeded to do a little analysis. I am not an accountant but the information was just easy to acquire, as it should be, and did a little reading and sorting of data.
Here is another bit of surprising information. This year’s actual spending is exceeding the budget in 14 of the 39 departments.
I questioned why many of the departments exist. The housing department caught my eye. The department costs over $38 million dollars in salaries and another $6 million in operating expenses this year. ”The Los Angeles Housing Department has four program areas, housing, rent, code enforcement and compliance” The department also manages the Displaced Tenant Relocation fund that is estimated to be $500,000 this year. The total budget for this department in 2005-06 year was $36 million. That is a 22% increase in just one year ($38 million dollars plus $6 million).
The city’s elected officials know that there is a budget issue but have done little to stem the unbudgeted spending. Many are taking their pay raises with claims that they will donate the money to charity but the money for those raises is not really available. Worse are recently negotiated pay raises for all city employees. The police department’s new headquarters has seen its cost double from approximately $200 million dollars to $400 million. Many millions of dollars is being allocated for a new children’s museum.
Now the mayor has declared an emergency that enables the city to ask city voters for a new phone tax that only requires a majority yes vote to pass। If it wasn’t an emergency passing the tax would require a vote of at least 66.6%.
The lack of responsibility among city council members and the mayor is the emergency.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Presidential Debates Have Been Disappointing
How boring! Most of the candidates in each party’s debates (they are really forums) mimic each other. The contenders of each party try to catch their opponents in an error. The one exception is Ron Paul. He is a Republican who actually brings his own thought to those utterly uninspiring debates. He has raised enough money to actually become a contender.
The Democrats are particularly unanimous in their views. Each of them tries his/her very best to avoid taking a stand on any issue. Actually they try to avoid all issues. The best example is providing a commitment to issue driver’s licenses to illegal aliens. Hilary Clinton flipped on this issue for two weeks and then said no. At the November 15 debate Barak Obama used 192 words before finally saying “yes”.
The Republicans also take the same views with the exception of Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani. Unlike Ron Paul the other Republicans subscribe to the idea of not telling voters anything about their views. Rudy Giuliani’s social liberalism and Mitt Romney’s religion have become talk show fodder. I find it utterly dismaying that Mitt Romney’s religious belief have become an issue. That Romney’s Mormon religion is being discussed is an indicator that bigotry still exists in the United States or that it is at least important in the Republican party. No wonder I have become an Independent. I personally dis-associated myself from a friend who showed himself to be a bigot and I would not be part of any group that stood for any bigotry.
I like Rudy Giuliani. His social liberalism makes him an excellent candidate for president against any Democrat. He could win next November. He and Hillary will have to take firm stands on real issues to win.
The Democrats are particularly unanimous in their views. Each of them tries his/her very best to avoid taking a stand on any issue. Actually they try to avoid all issues. The best example is providing a commitment to issue driver’s licenses to illegal aliens. Hilary Clinton flipped on this issue for two weeks and then said no. At the November 15 debate Barak Obama used 192 words before finally saying “yes”.
The Republicans also take the same views with the exception of Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani. Unlike Ron Paul the other Republicans subscribe to the idea of not telling voters anything about their views. Rudy Giuliani’s social liberalism and Mitt Romney’s religion have become talk show fodder. I find it utterly dismaying that Mitt Romney’s religious belief have become an issue. That Romney’s Mormon religion is being discussed is an indicator that bigotry still exists in the United States or that it is at least important in the Republican party. No wonder I have become an Independent. I personally dis-associated myself from a friend who showed himself to be a bigot and I would not be part of any group that stood for any bigotry.
I like Rudy Giuliani. His social liberalism makes him an excellent candidate for president against any Democrat. He could win next November. He and Hillary will have to take firm stands on real issues to win.
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